Ongoing Global and Regional Adaptive Evolution of SARS-CoV-2
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Abstract
Understanding the trends in SARS-CoV-2 evolution is paramount to control the COVID- 19 pandemic. We analyzed more than 300,000 high quality genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 variants available as of January 2021. The results show that the ongoing evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during the pandemic is characterized primarily by purifying selection, but a small set of sites appear to evolve under positive selection. The receptor-binding domain of the spike protein and the nuclear localization signal (NLS) associated region of the nucleocapsid protein are enriched with positively selected amino acid replacements. These replacements form a strongly connected network of apparent epistatic interactions and are signatures of major partitions in the SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny. Virus diversity within each geographic region has been steadily growing for the entirety of the pandemic, but analysis of the phylogenetic distances between pairs of regions reveals four distinct periods based on global partitioning of the tree and the emergence of key mutations. The initial period of rapid diversification into region- specific phylogenies that ended in February 2020 was followed by a major extinction event and global homogenization concomitant with the spread of D614G in the spike protein, ending in March 2020. The NLS associated variants across multiple partitions rose to global prominence in March-July, during a period of stasis in terms of inter- regional diversity. Finally, beginning July 2020, multiple mutations, some of which have since been demonstrated to enable antibody evasion, began to emerge associated with ongoing regional diversification, which might be indicative of speciation.
Significance
Understanding the ongoing evolution of SARS-CoV-2 is essential to control and ultimately end the pandemic. We analyzed more than 300,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes available as of January 2021 and demonstrate adaptive evolution of the virus that affects, primarily, multiple sites in the spike and nucleocapsid protein. Selection appears to act on combinations of mutations in these and other SARS-CoV-2 genes. Evolution of the virus is accompanied by ongoing adaptive diversification within and between geographic regions. This diversification could substantially prolong the pandemic and the vaccination campaign, in which variant-specific vaccines are likely to be required.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.10.12.336644: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Sequences sourced from non-human hosts were manually identified from the metadata and those excluded at the previous step were added to the alignment using MAFFT, (again specifying -- keeplength). MAFFTsuggested: (MAFFT, RRID:SCR_011811)A second iteration of FastTree was initiated on the second alignment to produce an intermediate tree. FastTreesuggested: (FastTree, RRID:SCR_015501)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit …SciScore for 10.1101/2020.10.12.336644: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Sequences sourced from non-human hosts were manually identified from the metadata and those excluded at the previous step were added to the alignment using MAFFT, (again specifying -- keeplength). MAFFTsuggested: (MAFFT, RRID:SCR_011811)A second iteration of FastTree was initiated on the second alignment to produce an intermediate tree. FastTreesuggested: (FastTree, RRID:SCR_015501)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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