PREDICTIONS FOR EUROPE FOR THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AFTER LOCKDOWN WAS LIFTED USING AN SIR MODEL

  1. Jay Patwardhan

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Abstract

I analyze a simplified SIR model developed from a paper written by Gyan Bhanot and Charles de Lisi in May of 2020 to find the successes and limitations of their predictions. In particular, I study the predicted cases and deaths fitted to data from March and its potential application to data in September. The data is observed to fit the model as predicted until around 150 days after December 31, 2019, after which many countries lift their lockdowns and begin to reopen. A plateau in cases followed by an increase approximately 1.5 months after is also observed. In terms of deaths, the data fits the shape of the model, but the model mostly underestimates the death toll after around 160 days. An analysis of the residuals is provided to locate the precise date of the departure of each country from its accepted data estimates and test each data point to its predicted value using a Z-test to determine whether each observation can fit the given model. The observed behavior is matched to policy measures taken in each country to attach an explanation to these observations. I notice that an international reopening results in a sharp increase in cases, and aim to plot this new growth in cases and predict when the pandemic will end for each country.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.10.03.20206359: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.10.03.20206359 on medRxiv