Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in Bangladesh Using Exponential Growth Method
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Abstract
Objectives
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak emerged in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. Soon, it has spread out across the world and become an ongoing pandemic. In Bangladesh, the first case of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was detected on March 8, 2020. Since then, not many significant studies have been conducted to understand the transmission dynamics of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Bangladesh. In this study, we estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Bangladesh.
Methods
The data of daily confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Bangladesh and the reported values of generation time of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) for Singapore and Tianjin, China, were collected. We calculated the basic reproduction number R 0 by applying the exponential growth (EG) method. Epidemic data of the first 76 days and different values of generation time were used for the calculation.
Results
The basic reproduction number R 0 of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Bangladesh is estimated to be 2.66 [95% CI: 2.58-2.75], optimized R 0 is 2.78 [95% CI: 2.69-2.88] using generation time 5.20 with a standard deviation of 1.72 for Singapore. Using generation time 3.95 with a standard deviation of 1.51 for Tianjin, China, R 0 is estimated to be 2.15 [95% CI: 2.09-2.20], optimized R 0 is 2.22 [95% CI: 2.16-2.29].
Conclusions
The calculated basic reproduction number R 0 of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Bangladesh is significantly higher than 1, which indicates its high transmissibility and contagiousness.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.09.29.20203885: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This study has several limitations too. First is the quality of data. We collected data from a public resource. The quality of data is not ensured. There is a possibility that some confirmed cases remained unreported. This can affect our estimation. Second, the reported values of generation time vary from 3.95 to 5.20. This is not …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.09.29.20203885: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This study has several limitations too. First is the quality of data. We collected data from a public resource. The quality of data is not ensured. There is a possibility that some confirmed cases remained unreported. This can affect our estimation. Second, the reported values of generation time vary from 3.95 to 5.20. This is not quantified precisely. In summary, using the exponential growth method, the basic reproduction number R0 of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated. R0 has shown some sensitivity to generation time. This study can be helpful for further understanding of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Bangladesh. The estimated R0 is significantly larger than 1, which is evidence of its high transmissibility and contagiousness. Either vaccination should be done, or more preventive control measures should be taken to reduce the epidemic size.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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