Forecasting Covid-19 Infections and Deaths Horizon in Egypt

The coronavirus Covid-19 pandemic is defining a global health crisis, which is the hugest challenge the world has faced since World War II. Accordingly, the global economy as well is facing the worst economic catastrophe since the 1930s Great Depression. The case in Egypt is similar to the rest of the world. Despite being threatened by GDP decline and income losses; the Egyptian government has reacted early to restrain the pandemic outbreak. By mid-March, many measures had been undertaken to contain the spread of the virus. More than three months after imposing them, Egypt began lifting many of the restrictions put in place to curb the spread of coronavirus. Predictions of the potential spread of Covid-19 based on time series Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and econometric Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) forecasting models are utilized in this paper for designing and/or evaluating countermeasures. The aim of this study is threefold, first using the most recent available data to find the best prediction models for daily cases and death in Egypt and forecast them up to 7 November 2020. Second, to analyze the effect of mobility on the incidence of the pandemic using Google Community Mobility Reports (GCMR) to evaluate the results of easing lockdown restrictions. Finally, providing some recommendations that may help lessen the spread of the virus and eradicate new deaths as possible. The results revealed that mobility of population is affecting the incidence of new cases of Covid-19 significantly over the period of the study. Additionally, the total number of infections on November 7 2020 is expected to reach 102,352 cases, while the total death toll is predicted to be 5,938 according to the most accurate methods of forecasting. Accordingly, in order to sustain the predicted flat pandemic curve, many restrictions must be continued and emergency mechanisms need to be considered. For instance, adhering to the precautions of social distancing advised by the health minister and the declared hygiene rules to ensure that infection is prevented or transmitted is necessary. Besides, being prepared with re-imposing lockdown strategies and health system support are essential among others. It should also be noted that this expected pattern can shift, yet that depends on people’s actions.