COVID-19: Risks of Re-emergence, Re-infection, and Control Measures – A Long Term Modeling Study
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Abstract
In this work we define a modified SEIR model that accounts for the spread of infection during the latent period, infections from asymptomatic or pauci-symptomatic infected individuals, potential loss of acquired immunity, people’s increasing awareness of social distancing and the use of vaccination as well as non-pharmaceutical interventions like social confinement. We estimate model parameters in three different scenarios - in Italy, where there is a growing number of cases and re-emergence of the epidemic, in India, where there are significant number of cases post confinement period and in Victoria, Australia where a re-emergence has been controlled with severe social confinement program. Our result shows the benefit of long term confinement of 50% or above population and extensive testing. With respect to loss of acquired immunity, our model suggests higher impact for Italy. We also show that a reasonably effective vaccine with mass vaccination program can be successful in significantly controlling the size of infected population. We show that for India, a reduction in contact rate by 50% compared to a reduction of 10% in the current stage can reduce death from 0.0268% to 0.0141% of population. Similarly, for Italy we show that reducing contact rate by half can reduce a potential peak infection of 15% population to less than 1.5% of population, and potential deaths from 0.48% to 0.04%. With respect to vaccination, we show that even a 75% efficient vaccine administered to 50% population can reduce the peak number of infected population by nearly 50% in Italy. Similarly, for India, a 0.056% of population would die without vaccination, while 93.75% efficient vaccine given to 30% population would bring this down to 0.036% of population, and 93.75% efficient vaccine given to 70% population would bring this down to 0.034%.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.09.19.20198051: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources We use lmfit python package28 for non-linear least-squares and minimize of the sum of the squares of the errors using trust region reflective method and obtaining goodness of fit measure of χ2 = 5.3331e−07 for Italy. pythonsuggested: (IPython, RRID:SCR_001658)Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzo…
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.09.19.20198051: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources We use lmfit python package28 for non-linear least-squares and minimize of the sum of the squares of the errors using trust region reflective method and obtaining goodness of fit measure of χ2 = 5.3331e−07 for Italy. pythonsuggested: (IPython, RRID:SCR_001658)Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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