Prediction of Covid-19 Infections Through December 2020 for 10 US States Incorporating Outdoor Temperature and School Re-Opening Effects-August Update
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Abstract
End-of-August updates for Covid-19 infection case predictions for 10 US States (NY, WA, GA, IL, MN, FL, OH, MI, CA, and NC) are compared to actual data. Several states that experienced significant summer surges gained control of accelerating infection spread during August. The US as a whole and the 10 States investigated continue to follow periods of linear infection growth that defines a boundary separating accelerated infection growth and infection decay.
August 31 predictions (initiated July 27, 2020) for four States (NY, WA, MI and MN) are within 10% of actual data. Predictions for four other States (GA, IL, CA, and OH) agree between 10 and 20% of actual data. Predictions for two States (FL and NC) are greater than 20% different from actual data. Systematic differences between predictions and actual data are related to the impact of the June-July summer surge, and human behavior reactions (ie, increased face mask usage and distancing) to accelerated infection growth.
Outdoor temperature effects and school re-opening effects are not apparent nor expected for August. Human behavior parameters (Social Distance Index, SDI, and disease transmission efficiency, G, parameters) are adjusted to mirror August data. Comparisons of actual versus predicted daily new infection cases display the complexity of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.09.14.20193821: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.09.14.20193821: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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