Estimates of outbreak-specific SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological parameters from genomic data

  1. Timothy G. Vaughan
  2. Jérémie Sciré
  3. Sarah A. Nadeau
  4. Tanja Stadler

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Abstract

We estimate the basic reproductive number and case counts for 15 distinct SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, distributed across 10 countries and one cruise ship, based solely on phylodynamic analyses of genomic data. Our results indicate that, prior to significant public health interventions, the reproductive numbers for a majority (10) of these outbreaks are similar, with median posterior estimates ranging between 1.4 and 2.8. These estimates provide a view which is complementary to that provided by those based on traditional line listing data. The genomic-based view is arguably less susceptible to biases resulting from differences in testing protocols, testing intensity, and import of cases into the community of interest. In the analyses reported here, the genomic data primarily provides information regarding which samples belong to a particular outbreak. We observe that once these outbreaks are identified, the sampling dates carry the majority of the information regarding the reproductive number. Finally, we provide genome-based estimates of the cumulative case counts for each outbreak, which allow us to speculate on the amount of unreported infections within the populations housing each outbreak. These results indicate that for the majority (7) of the populations studied, the number of recorded cases is much bigger than the estimated cumulative case counts, suggesting the presence of unsequenced pathogen diversity in these populations.

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in late 2019, researchers around the globe have sought to estimate the rate at which the disease spread through populations prior to public health intervention, as quantified by the parameter R 0 . This is often estimated based on case count data and may be biased due to the presence of import cases. To overcome this, we estimate R 0 by applying Bayesian phylodynamic methods to SARS-CoV-2 genomes which have been made available by laboratories worldwide. We provide R 0 and absolute infection count estimates for 15 distinct outbreaks. These estimates contribute to our understanding of the baseline transmission dynamics of the disease, which will be critical in guiding future public health responses to the pandemic.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.09.12.20193284 on medRxiv