The impact of mobility restriction measures on the reproduction index of Covid-19 in the city of Queretaro, Mexico

  1. Oscar San Roman Orozco
  2. Santiago Agraz Orozco
  3. Isidro A Gutierrez Alvarez
  4. Vasiliki Radaios

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Abstract

An observational study based on official data (CONACYT and Ministry of Health) was carried out in which the effective reproduction index R(e) and the reproduction index R0 are compared with the mobility presented by Google. Additionally, an overview of the development of the pandemic in Querétaro, Mexico. Highlights key events; such as the main government interventions and social factors that could affect society’s behavior.

A positive relationship is observed between Re, R0, and the levels of mobility presented by Google. This indicates that an increase in mobility is associated with the transmission of SARSCoV-2. In February, a significant decrease in mobility is observed, which lasts until approximately May 1st. This period corresponds to an R0 and R(e) between 1.17 and 1.87. After May 1st, there is a sustained increase in mobility levels. And, as of May 16, the effective reproduction index R (e) and the reproduction index R0 begin to increase. This is expected as it reflects the delay between the infection and the diagnosis of COVID-19. The R0 and R (e) increase from 1.45 on May 16 to 3.59 on July 5. According to the baseline of normal mobility levels, an increase from −49.6% on May 1st, to −20.6% on July 5 was observed.

Based on these data, we conclude that the relaxation of restrictive mobility measures should be reconsidered. Despite this, mobility restrictions must not be a unique mitigation strategy for controlling the Reproductive Index. A comprehensive approach is needed, which generates socio-behavioral changes that allow a further reduction in reproductive rates.

Key Messages

  • There is a positive correlation between the reproductive number (R0) and the effective reproductive index (Re) of SARS-CoV-2 and mobility trends in Querétaro, Mexico.

  • A clear increase in mobility in the population in Queretaro, Mexico is associated with an increase in the rate of transmission of Covid-19.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.09.06.20189373: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Mobility data was obtained from Google’s “Local Mobility Reports”.
    Google’s
    suggested: (Google Compute Engine, RRID:SCR_001011)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.09.06.20189373v1 on medRxiv