Estimating the number of COVID-19 cases being introduced into British Higher Education Institutions during Autumn 2020

  1. Francisco J. Pérez-Reche
  2. Norval J.C. Strachan

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Abstract

It is estimated that 81% of the 163 UK Higher Educational Institutes (HEIs) have more than a 50% chance of having at least one COVID-19 case arriving on campus when considering all staff and students. Across all HEIs it is estimated that there will be a total of approximately 700 COVID-19 cases (95% CI: 640 – 750) arriving on campus of which 380 are associated from UK students, 230 from international and 90 from staff. This assumes all students will return to campus and that student numbers and where they come from are similar to previous years. According to the current UK government guidance approximately 237,370 students arriving on campus will be required to quarantine because they come from countries outwith designated travel corridors. Assuming quarantining is 100% efficient this will potentially reduce the overall number of cases by approximately 20% to 540 (95% CI: 500 – 590). Universities must plan for COVID-19 cases to arrive on campus and facilitate mitigations to reduce the spread of disease. It is likely that the first two weeks will be crucial to stop spread of introduced cases. Following that, the risk of introduction of new cases onto campus will be from interactions between students, staff and the local community as well as students travelling off campus for personal, educational or recreational reasons.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.09.02.20186676: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

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    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.09.02.20186676v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.09.02.20186676v1 on medRxiv