Examination of Isolation Rate in SIQR model for COVID-19 Epidemic

  1. Koichi Hashiguchi

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Abstract

Newly proposed SIQR model defines exponent λ of exponential function expressing daily number of isolated persons as linear equation of isolation rate q and social distancing ratio x. In order to dynamically analyze the process of COVID-19 epidemic in seven countries by means of regression analyses of λ , increasing rate of cumulative isolated persons(cases), IRCC, is proposed as practical index for the isolation rate q. IRCC is correlated with q in the form of q=C · IRCC, where C is a normalizing coefficient. At first, C is formulated in two modes, one is simple and the other complex, under the constraint conditions by definition 0≤x, q≤1, which give allowable narrow path of C between upper and lower boundaries. Then, the dynamic locus of q-x relation is analyzed for each of seven countries including Japan and the United States using formulated isolation rate q, and characteristic q-x behavior for each country is derived. At the same time, it is shown that specific path selection of C gives almost same linear loci of q-x relation derived by mathematical sequential method imitating a bipedal walk. In addition, increasing rates of cumulative PCR tests, IRCT, for six countries are discussed in relation with IRCC, and are shown that IRCT contributes to the promotion of the isolation rate via IRCC.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.09.01.20185611: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.09.01.20185611v1 on medRxiv