Monitoring COVID-19 related public Interest and population Health Literacy in South Asia: An Internet Search-Interest Based Model

  1. Hasan Symum
  2. Kh Mohammed Ali Sagor

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Abstract

Background

Information epidemiology based on internet search data can be used to model COVID-19 pandemic progressions and monitor population health literacy. However, the applicability of internet searches to monitor COVID-19 infections and public health awareness in South Asian countries are unclear.

Objectives

To assess the association of public interest and health literacy in COVID-19 with the actual number of infected cases for countries in South Asia.

Methods

Google Trends data from January to March 2020 were used to correlate public interest and health literacy with official data on COVID-19 cases using the relative search volume (RSV) index. Public interest in COVID-19 was retrieved in RSV indices with the search term “Coronavirus (Virus)”. Similarly, an OR combination of search terms “hand wash”, “face mask”, “hand sanitizer”, “face shield” and “gloves” were used to retrieve RSV indices as a surrogate of population health literacy in COVID-19. Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases were obtained from the COVID-19 data repository managed by the Johns Hopkins University. Country-level time-lag correlation analyses were performed for a time lag between 30 and +30 days.

Results

COVID-19-related worldwide public interest reached a peak on March 16, 2020, right after the WHO announcement of coronavirus outbreak as a pandemic. COVID-19 related public interest reached the highest peak in South Asian countries a few days after each county reported 100th confirmed cases. There were significant positive correlations between COVID-19 related public interest and daily laboratory confirmed cases in countries expect Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka. The highest public interest in South Asian Countries was on average 12 days before the local maximum of new confirmed cases. Similarly, web searches related to personal hygiene and COVID-19 preventive measures in south Asia correlated to the number of confirmed cases as well as national restriction measures.

Conclusion

Public interest indicated by RSV indices can help to monitor the progression of an outbreak such as the current COVID-19 pandemic particularly in countries with a lack of diagnostic and surveillance capacity, and thereby distribute appropriate health information to the general public.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.24.20180943: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Google trend determines the proportion of the searches for user-specified terms among all web queries on the Google Search website and other affiliated Google sites for a given location and time [20].
    Google
    suggested: (Google, RRID:SCR_017097)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    This study has some limitations that should be acknowledged. First, this study used single search engines, Google, to retrieve population interest data form the South Asian Countries. Thus, there might be selection bias since people who use other search engines are not included in this investigation. However, since more than 880 million people in South Asia use the internet and google as the major search engine (more than 98% market share), google search queries can be a strong tool to estimate public interest [9,38]. Second, Google trend do not report search query result the form of a relative search value instead of absolute search volumes which might have limited more in-depth and precise investigations. In addition, the Google trend excludes all the search results with any typographical error in the query terms. Third, although the number of studies based on google trend is increasing, Google does not provide the detailed information about the procedures by which they generate search data, and the study population responsible for the searches remain unclear [13]. Finally, search volumes can be influenced by the dissemination of information through the news media, and it is still unclear whether changes in online activity translate to changes in health behavior. This massive dissemination might have influenced RSV values through disproportionate swings among the citizens in different countries and may have resulted in overestimation about public health literacy and public ...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.08.24.20180943v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.08.24.20180943v1 on medRxiv