COVID-19: Estimation of the Actual Onset of Local Epidemic Cycles, Determination of Total Number of Infective, and Duration of the Incubation Period

  1. Rogerio Atem de Carvalho
  2. Eduardo Atem de Carvalho

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Abstract

Background

Most studies of the epidemic cycles of the pandemic of Sars-CoV-2, or COVID-19 as it became known, define the beginning of specific cycles in countries from the laboratory identification of the first cases of infection, however, there is the awareness that cycles may have started earlier, without proper identification. This influences all the parameters that govern the statistical models used for controlling the infection.

Purpose

This work proposes two models based on experimental data. The Logistic Model it is used to obtain three parameters of the epidemic cycle of COVID-19, namely: the final count for the total infected, the daily infection rate and the lag time. Complimentary, a novel inventory model is proposed to calculate the number of infective persons, as well as to determine the incubation period.

Methods

The data on epidemic cycles of Germany, Italy, and Sweden are treated previously by the Moving Average Method with Initial value (MAMI), then a variation of the Logistic Model, obtained through curve-fitting, is used to obtain the three parameters. The inventory model is introduced to calculate the actual number of infected persons and the behavior of the incubation period is analyzed.

Results

After comparing data from the three countries it is possible to determine the actual probable dates of the beginning of the epidemic cycles for each one, determine the size of the incubation period, as well as to determine the total number of infective persons during the cycle.

Conclusions

The actual probable dates of the beginning of the epidemic cycles in the countries analyzed are determined, the total number of infected is determined, and it is statistically proven that the incubation cycle for Sars-CoV-2 is five days.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.23.20180356: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.08.23.20180356v1 on medRxiv