A delayed SEIQR epidemic model of COVID-19 in Tokyo
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Abstract
The rapid expansion of COVID-19 has caused a global pandemic. In order to avoid excessive restriction to the social activity, a good strategy of quarantine is needed. Several epidemic models with a quarantine compartment such as susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantined-removed (SEIQR) model have been applied. However, in the actual situation, the infection test and quarantine is often delayed from the beginning of the infectious stage. This article presents a delayed SEIQR model to analyze the effect of the delay of quarantine, and to suggest a guideline for the measure. The latency period (compartment E) was assumed to be 3 days, and the start of quarantine action was assumed to be delayed by 4 to 10 days from infection. The actual PCR test-positive number data from March 10th to July 18th in 2020 was analyzed to estimate a transmission rate and the reproduction number. The area where the infection expansion is restrained was displayed in the two parameter space (transmission rate and quarantine rate) for several possible lengths of the delay of quarantine. As a result, it was shown to be very hard to restrain the expansion of infection only by a simple quarantine action retaining the delay. As a short term measure, it was found to be necessary to reduce the transmission rate through some kind of restriction of social activity, but as a long term measure, it was found to be possible to maintain the social activity by shortening the delay of quarantine through expanding the infection test system to find earlier stage patients, including asymptomatic infectious patients. In order to shed light to this conclusion from a different viewpoint, this model was applied in another case that an additional quarantine was taken into account before the delay. The result was shown to have a similar effect as that of the shortening of the delay.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.18.20177709: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This report has the following limitations.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.18.20177709: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This report has the following limitations.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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