Covid-19 transmission dynamics during the unlock phase and significance of testing
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Abstract
The pandemic disease Covid-19 caused by SARS-COV-2, which emerged from Wuhan, China, has established itself as the most devastating disease in the history of infectious disease, affecting 216 countries/territories across the world. Different countries have developed and adopted various policies to contain this epidemic and the most common were the social distancing and lockdown. Though some countries have come out of this pandemic, the infection is still increasing and remains very serious in the rest of the world. Even when the disease is not under control, many countries have withdrawn the lockdown and going through the phase-wise unlocking process, causing a further increment in the infection rate. In such a scenario, the role of the undetected class of infected individuals has become very crucial. The present study is an attempt to understand and estimate the possible epidemic burden during the unlock phase in the presence of an undetected class. We proposed a modified SEIR model and dissected the epidemiological status of different countries with the available data. With the initial establishment of the model with the epidemic data of four countries, which have already attained the epidemic peak, the study focused more on countries like India and the USA, where the epidemic curve is still growing, but the unlock process has started. As a straightforward result, we noticed a significant increase in the undetected and detected infected cases under the ongoing unlock phase. Under such conditions, our recalibration exercise showed that an increase in the testing could revert the existing growth rate of the infected cases to the lower growth rate of the lockdown period. Our present study emphasizes on the implementation of 3T principles, trace, test, and treat, to contain the epidemic. The significance of large scale testing in controlling the epidemic is true for both India and the USA though they have different socio-economic conditions. The use of repurposing drugs may further decrease the infected cases and help the disease controlling process. We believe our proposed strategy obtained through a mathematical model will help to make a better policy for the unlock phase.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.18.20176354: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.18.20176354: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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