Superspreading as a Regular Factor of the COVID-19 Pandemic: II. Quarantine Measures and the Second Wave
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Abstract
Within the framework of a two-component model of the COVID-19 epidemic, taking into account the special role of superspreaders , we consider the impact of the recovery factor and quarantine measures on the course of the epidemic, as well as the possibility of a second wave of morbidity. It is assumed that there is no long-term immunity in asymptomatic superspreaders who have undergone the infection, and the emergence of long-term immunity in those who have undergone severe illness. It is shown that, under these assumptions, the relaxation of quarantine measures leads to the resumption of virus circulation among asymptomatic superspreaders . Depending on the characteristics of the quarantine, its removal may or may not lead to a renewed wave of daily morbidity. A criterion for the occurrence of repeated wave of morbidity is proposed based on the analysis of the final phase of the first wave. Based on this criterion, the repeated wave of the epidemic is predicted in New Zealand. A natural explanation is given for the decrease in lethality among the infected against the background of an absolute increase in their number.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.14.20174557: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.14.20174557: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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