A simple numerical and analytical analysis of Covid-19 progression, infection inhibition and control in various countries

  1. U. Chakravarty
  2. Deepa Chaturvedi
  3. M.P. Joshi

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Abstract

Covid-19 disease outspread and its subsequent control and inhibition strategies in various countries have been different which led to quite drastic difference in the outcome of the disease progression. In this paper we present an analytical and numerical study of Covid-19 disease spread and control by applying the modified SIR model of epidemic outbreak to explain the Covid spread from February-July 2020 in various countries. Two approaches are evident from the disease progression; one focused on disease eradication and inhibition, and the other is less restrictive dynamic response. Both the approaches are analytically modeled to determine the parameters that characterize the effectiveness of dealing with the disease progression. The model successfully explains the Covid-19 evolution and control of various countries over a vast span of four-five months. The study is highly beneficial to simply analytically and numerically model this complex problem of epidemic proliferation. It assists to easily determine the mathematical parameters for the Covid-19 control measures, helps in predicting the end of the epidemic, and most importantly conceiving the judicious way of unlock process to restore communication between cities, states and countries.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.11.20173203: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.08.11.20173203 on medRxiv