Effective reproduction number for COVID-19 in Aotearoa New Zealand
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Abstract
The effective reproduction number, R eff , is the average number of secondary cases infected by a primary case, a key measure of the transmission potential for a disease. Compared to many countries, New Zealand has had relatively few COVID-19 cases, many of which were caused by infections acquired overseas. This makes it difficult to use standard methods to estimate R eff . In this work, we use a stochastic model to simulate COVID-19 spread in New Zealand and report the values of R eff from simulations that gave best fit to case data. We estimate that New Zealand had an effective reproduction number R eff = 1.8 for COVID-19 transmission prior to moving into Alert Level 4 on March 25 2020 and that after moving into Alert level 4 this was reduced to R eff = 0.35. Our estimate R eff = 1.8 for reproduction number before Alert Level 4, is relatively low compared to other countries. This could be due, in part, to measures put in place in early-to mid-March, including: the cancellation of mass gatherings, the isolation of international arrivals, and employees being encouraged to work from home.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.10.20172320: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank…
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.10.20172320: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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