Prediction of Covid-19 Infections Through December 2020 for 10 US States Using a Two Parameter Transmission Model Incorporating Outdoor Temperature and School Re-Opening Effects

  1. Ty Newell

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Abstract

Covid-19 infection case predictions (total cases) are made for August through December 2020 for 10 US States (NY, WA, GA, IL, MN, FL, OH, MI, CA, and NC). A two-parameter model based on social distance index (SDI) and disease transmission efficiency (G) parameters is used to characterize SARS-CoV-2 disease spread. Current lack of coherent and coordinated US policy causes the US to follow a linear infection growth path with a limit cycle behavior that modulates the US between accelerating and decaying infection growth on either side of a linear growth path boundary.

Four prediction cases are presented:

  • No school re-openings; fall season temperature effect

  • No school re-openings; no fall season temperature effect

  • School re-openings; fall season temperature effect

  • School re-openings; no fall season temperature effect

    • Fall outdoor temperatures, in contrast to the 1918 pandemic, are predicted to be beneficial for dampening SARS-CoV-2 transmission in States as they pass through “swing season” temperature range of 70F to 50F. Physical re-opening of schools in September are predicted to accelerate infections.

    States with low current infectious case numbers (eg, NY) are predicted to be minimally impacted while States with high current infectious case numbers (eg, CA and FL) will be significantly impacted by school re-openings.

    Updated infection predictions will be posted monthly (Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec) with adjustments based on actual trends in SDI and G. Assessments related to outdoor temperature impact, school re-openings, and other public gathering re-openings will be discussed in updated reports.

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      SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.06.20169896: (What is this?)

      Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

      Table 1: Rigor

      Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
      Randomizationnot detected.
      Blindingnot detected.
      Power Analysisnot detected.
      Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

      Table 2: Resources

      No key resources detected.

      Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

      Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

      Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

      Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

      Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

      Results from rtransparent:
      • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
      • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
      • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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    2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.08.06.20169896 on medRxiv