Discontinuity of the deadly infection rate for the COVID-19 pandemia due to lockdown measures
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Abstract
An asymmetric version of the classical Kermack-McKendrick description of an epidemic evolution is presented in terms of four independent parameters. This is enough to obtain an accurate description of the different stages of the COVID-19 pandemia in any country for the reported daily and total number of casualties due to the infection. The asymmetry accounts for lockdown effects introduced to reduce the impact of the epidemic outburst. A set of new variables allows for an analytic study of the evolution of the system before and after the lockdown measures are put in place. A continuous matching is possible for all variables in the system apart from the time dependence of the infection rate. An analytic expression is obtained for this discontinuity which is proposed as a good quantity to gauge the efficiency of the lockdown measures. A study of this variable for different countries is performed.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.05.20168880: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.05.20168880: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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