Modified SIR-model applied to covid-19, similarity solutions and projections to further development
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
The SIR-model is adapted to the covid-19 pandemic through a modification that consists in making the basic reproduction number variable. Independent of it, another reproduction number is introduced, which is defined similarly to the usual net reproduction number. Due to its simple analytic form, it enables a clear interpretation for all values. A further parameter, provisionally called acceleration parameter, is introduced and applied, which enables a more differentiated characterization of the infection number dynamics. By a variable transformation the 3 equations of the modified SIR-model can be reduced to 2. The latter are solved up to ordinary integrations. The solutions are evaluated for current situations, yielding a pretty good match with the data reported. Encouraged by this, a variety of possible future developments is examined, including linear and exponential growth of the infection numbers as well as sub- and super-exponential growth. In particular, the behavior of the two reproduction numbers and the acceleration parameter is studied, which in some cases leads to surprising results. With regard to the number of unreported infections it is shown, that from the solution for a special one solutions for others can be derived by similarity transformations.
Article activity feed
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.30.20165035: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.30.20165035: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
-
