Transport effect of COVID-19 pandemic in France
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Abstract
An extension of the classical pandemic SIRD model is considered for the regional spread of COVID-19 in France under lockdown strategies. This compartment model divides the infected and the recovered individuals into undetected and detected compartments respectively. By fitting the extended model to the real detected data during the lockdown, an optimization algorithm is used to derive the optimal parameters, the initial condition and the epidemics start date of regions in France. Considering all the age classes together, a network model of the pandemic transport between regions in France is presented on the basis of the regional extended model and is simulated to reveal the transport effect of COVID-19 pandemic after lockdown. Using the the measured values of displacement of people mobilizing between each city, the pandemic network of all cities in France is simulated by using the same model and method as the pandemic network of regions. Finally, a discussion on an integro-differential equation is given and a new model for the network pandemic model of each age class is provided.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.27.20161430: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.27.20161430: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.27.20161430: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Experimental Models: Organisms/Strains Sentences Resources N regions is introduced, for all j = 1, ..., Na and i = 1, ..., N N a X dSi,j (t) − βijk (t)Ii,k (t)Si,j (t) =− dt k=1 X + σ(j, k, t){Lkij (t)Sk,j (t) − Likj (t)Si,j (t)}, (23) k∈Ci Na − dIi,j (t) X − − − βijk (t)Ii,k (t)Si,j (t) − λ1 Ii,j (t) − (γIR + γIH + γIU )Ii,j (t) = dt k=1 X − − + σ(j, k, t){Lkij (t)Ik,j (t) − Likj (t)Ii,j (t)}, (24) k∈Ci + dIi,j (t) − + = λ1 Ii,j (t) − (γIR + γIH + γIU )Ii,j (t), dt − dRi,j (t) − − = γIR Ii,j (t) − λ2 Ri,j (t) dt X − + − + + σ(j, k, t){Rkij (t)Ik,j (t) − Rikj (t)Ii,j (t)}, (25) (26) k∈Ci + dRi,j (t) + − = γIR Ii,j (t) + λ2 Ri,j … SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.27.20161430: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Experimental Models: Organisms/Strains Sentences Resources N regions is introduced, for all j = 1, ..., Na and i = 1, ..., N N a X dSi,j (t) − βijk (t)Ii,k (t)Si,j (t) =− dt k=1 X + σ(j, k, t){Lkij (t)Sk,j (t) − Likj (t)Si,j (t)}, (23) k∈Ci Na − dIi,j (t) X − − − βijk (t)Ii,k (t)Si,j (t) − λ1 Ii,j (t) − (γIR + γIH + γIU )Ii,j (t) = dt k=1 X − − + σ(j, k, t){Lkij (t)Ik,j (t) − Likj (t)Ii,j (t)}, (24) k∈Ci + dIi,j (t) − + = λ1 Ii,j (t) − (γIR + γIH + γIU )Ii,j (t), dt − dRi,j (t) − − = γIR Ii,j (t) − λ2 Ri,j (t) dt X − + − + + σ(j, k, t){Rkij (t)Ik,j (t) − Rikj (t)Ii,j (t)}, (25) (26) k∈Ci + dRi,j (t) + − = γIR Ii,j (t) + λ2 Ri,j (t) + γHR Hi,j (t) + γU R Ui,j (t), dt dHi,j (t) − + = γIH (Ii,j (t) + Ii,j (t)) − (γHR + γHU + γHD )Hi,j (t), dt dUi,j (t) − + = γIU (Ii,j (t) + Ii,j (t)) + γHU Hi,j (t) − (γU R + γU D )Ui,j (t), dt dDi,j (t) = dt X − + − + + σ(jsuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
About SciScore
SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore is not a substitute for expert review. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers) in the manuscript, and detects sentences that appear to be missing RRIDs. SciScore also checks to make sure that rigor criteria are addressed by authors. It does this by detecting sentences that discuss criteria such as blinding or power analysis. SciScore does not guarantee that the rigor criteria that it detects are appropriate for the particular study. Instead it assists authors, editors, and reviewers by drawing attention to sections of the manuscript that contain or should contain various rigor criteria and key resources. For details on the results shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.27.20161430: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Experimental Models: Organisms/Strains Sentences Resources N regions is introduced, for all j = 1, ..., Na and i = 1, ..., N N a X dSi,j (t) − βijk (t)Ii,k (t)Si,j (t) =− dt k=1 X + σ(j, k, t){Lkij (t)Sk,j (t) − Likj (t)Si,j (t)}, (23) k∈Ci Na − dIi,j (t) X − − − βijk (t)Ii,k (t)Si,j (t) − λ1 Ii,j (t) − (γIR + γIH + γIU )Ii,j (t) = dt k=1 X − − + σ(j, k, t){Lkij (t)Ik,j (t) − Likj (t)Ii,j (t)}, (24) k∈Ci + dIi,j (t) − + = λ1 Ii,j (t) − (γIR + γIH + γIU )Ii,j (t), dt − dRi,j (t) − − = γIR Ii,j (t) − λ2 Ri,j (t) dt X − + − + + σ(j, k, t){Rkij (t)Ik,j (t) − Rikj (t)Ii,j (t)}, (25) (26) k∈Ci + dRi,j (t) + − = γIR Ii,j (t) + λ2 Ri,j … SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.27.20161430: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Experimental Models: Organisms/Strains Sentences Resources N regions is introduced, for all j = 1, ..., Na and i = 1, ..., N N a X dSi,j (t) − βijk (t)Ii,k (t)Si,j (t) =− dt k=1 X + σ(j, k, t){Lkij (t)Sk,j (t) − Likj (t)Si,j (t)}, (23) k∈Ci Na − dIi,j (t) X − − − βijk (t)Ii,k (t)Si,j (t) − λ1 Ii,j (t) − (γIR + γIH + γIU )Ii,j (t) = dt k=1 X − − + σ(j, k, t){Lkij (t)Ik,j (t) − Likj (t)Ii,j (t)}, (24) k∈Ci + dIi,j (t) − + = λ1 Ii,j (t) − (γIR + γIH + γIU )Ii,j (t), dt − dRi,j (t) − − = γIR Ii,j (t) − λ2 Ri,j (t) dt X − + − + + σ(j, k, t){Rkij (t)Ik,j (t) − Rikj (t)Ii,j (t)}, (25) (26) k∈Ci + dRi,j (t) + − = γIR Ii,j (t) + λ2 Ri,j (t) + γHR Hi,j (t) + γU R Ui,j (t), dt dHi,j (t) − + = γIH (Ii,j (t) + Ii,j (t)) − (γHR + γHU + γHD )Hi,j (t), dt dUi,j (t) − + = γIU (Ii,j (t) + Ii,j (t)) + γHU Hi,j (t) − (γU R + γU D )Ui,j (t), dt dDi,j (t) = dt X − + − + + σ(jsuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
About SciScore
SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore is not a substitute for expert review. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers) in the manuscript, and detects sentences that appear to be missing RRIDs. SciScore also checks to make sure that rigor criteria are addressed by authors. It does this by detecting sentences that discuss criteria such as blinding or power analysis. SciScore does not guarantee that the rigor criteria that it detects are appropriate for the particular study. Instead it assists authors, editors, and reviewers by drawing attention to sections of the manuscript that contain or should contain various rigor criteria and key resources. For details on the results shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.
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