COVID-19 mild cases determination from correlating COVID-line calls to reported cases

  1. Ezequiel Alvarez
  2. Franco Marsico

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Abstract

One of the most challenging keys to understand COVID-19 evolution is to have a measure on those mild cases which are never tested because their few symptoms are soft and/or fade away soon. The problem is not only that they are difficult to identify and test, but also that it is believed that they may constitute the bulk of the cases and could be crucial in the pandemic equation. We present a novel and simple algorithm to extract the number of these mild cases by correlating a COVID-line phone calls to reported cases in given districts. The key assumption is to realize that, being a highly contagious disease, the number of calls by mild cases should be proportional to the number of reported cases. Whereas a background of calls not related to infected people should be proportional to the district population. We present the plain mathematics of the method and as a working example we apply it to Buenos Aires Province (Argentina), where it is being currently used. The implementation of this algorithm by other regions would be straightforward and would provide compelling information to the corresponding Health Care Administration.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.26.20162008: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.07.26.20162008v1 on medRxiv