New Insights on Excess Deaths and COVID-19

  1. Harry P. Wetzler
  2. Herbert W. Cobb

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Abstract

Background

Weinberger and colleagues estimated that 27,065 of the 122,300 excess deaths in the United States between March 1 and May 30, 2020 did not have a COVID-19 cause of death.

Methods

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) post weekly data on mortality for 13 causes of death from the most prevalent comorbid conditions reported on death certificates where COVID-19 was listed as a cause of death. The 2015-2019 data for weeks 10 through 22 were used to forecast the number of deaths from the 13 causes in the absence of COVID-19 during 2020. The forecast was subtracted from the observed number of deaths for each cause during the period March 1 to May 30, 2020.

Results

The total of the differences for each of the 13 causes of death, 18,489 deaths, accounts for over two-thirds of the 27,065 excess deaths not due to COVID-19.

Conclusion

Combining the 95,235 reported COVID-19 deaths with the 18,489 from the 13 most frequent comorbid conditions reported on death certificates where COVID-19 was a cause suggests that as many as 93% of the excess deaths were due to COVID-19 and implies that COVID-19 deaths were undercounted. Ongoing assessment of excess deaths and causes of death is needed to provide a better understanding of the pandemic’s dynamics.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.24.20051508: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    The 2015-2019 data for weeks 10 through 22 were used in SPSS Forecasting to estimate the number of deaths from the 13 causes in the absence of COVID-19 during 2020.3 The forecast was subtracted from the observed number of deaths for each cause during the period March 1 to May 30, 2020.
    SPSS
    suggested: (SPSS, RRID:SCR_002865)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.07.24.20051508 on medRxiv