SIDIR: Extending SIR with Detected and Isolated Populations for Pandemic Modeling

  1. Joe Garman
  2. Sean MacAvaney
  3. Eugene Yang
  4. Ophir Frieder

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Abstract

We extend the Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model to include Detected (D) and Isolated (I) compartments (SIDIR). SIDIR improves COVID-19 outbreak behavior modeling by identifying infected populations as subsequently quarantined to reduce the spread of the infection (either in a hospital or self-quarantined). We present the model and provide a case study on COVID-19. The model estimates undetected cases (i.e., those infected but unconfirmed) and extrapolates when no additional undetected active (rogue) cases will remain, potentially guiding policy decisions that help control the spread of COVID-19 and future epidemics. A live demonstration of SIDIR on COVID-19 is available at: http://ir.cs.georgetown.edu/sidir .

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.20.20157834: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.07.20.20157834v1 on medRxiv