A logistic model of CoV-2 propagation

  1. Robert F. Weiss

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Abstract

We describe an elemental logistic model for the propagation of CoV-2 in a community and illustrate the sensitivity of the model to key parameters such as R 0 , the initial rate of infections per infected person, and A 0 , the fraction of infected people developing neutralizing antibodies. We demonstrate the importance of the duration of immunity in the population, the development of waves of new cases of infection, and the effect of premature opening of local economies.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.20.20157826: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.07.20.20157826v1 on medRxiv