SARS-COV-2 THREE FORCING SEASONALITIES: POLICIES, ENVIRONMENT AND URBAN SPACES

  1. Charles Roberto Telles

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Abstract

This research investigated if pandemic of SARS-COV-2 follows the Earth seasonality ε comparing countries cumulative daily new infections incidence over Earth periodic time of interest for north and south hemisphere. It was found that no seasonality in this form ε occurs as far as a seasonality forcing behavior ε ′ assumes most of the influence in SARS-COV-2 spreading patterns. Putting in order ε ′ of influence, there were identified three main forms of SARS-COV-2 of transmission behavior: during epidemics growth, policies are the main stronger seasonality forcing behavior of the epidemics followed by secondary and weaker environmental and urban spaces driving patterns of transmission. At outbreaks and control phase, environmental and urban spaces are the main seasonality forcing behavior due to policies/ALE limitations to address heterogeneity and confounding scenario of infection. Finally regarding S and R compartments of SIR model equations, control phases are the most reliable phase to predictive analysis.

These seasonality forcing behaviors cause environmental driven seasonality researches to face hidden or false observations due to policy/ALE interventions for each country and urban spaces characteristics. And also, it causes policies/ALE limitations to address urban spaces and environmental seasonality instabilities, thus generating posterior waves or uncontrolled patterns of transmission (fluctuations).

All this components affect the SARS-COV-2 spreading patterns simultaneously being not possible to observe environmental seasonality not associated intrinsically with policies/ALE and urban spaces, therefore conferring to these three forms of transmission spreading patterns, specific regions of analysis for time series data extraction.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.07.15.20154823v1 on medRxiv