Epidemiological Profile and Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in the Philippines

  1. N. J. L. Haw
  2. J. Uy
  3. K. T. L. Sy
  4. M. R. M. Abrigo

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Abstract

The Philippines confirmed local transmission of COVID-19 on 7 March 2020. We described the characteristics and epidemiological time-to-event distributions for laboratory-confirmed cases in the Philippines. The median age of 8,212 cases was 46 years (IQR: 32-61), with 46.2% being female and 68.8% living in the National Capital Region. Health care workers represented 24.7% of all detected infections. Mean length of hospitalization for those who were discharged or died were 16.00 days (95% CI: 15.48, 16.54) and 7.27 days (95% CI: 6.59, 8.24). Mean duration of illness was 26.66 days (95% CI: 26.06, 27.28) and 12.61 days (95% CI: 11.88, 13.37) for those who recovered or died. Mean serial interval was 6.90 days (95% CI: 5.81, 8.41). Epidemic doubling time pre-quarantine (11 February and 19 March) was 4.86 days (95% CI: 4.67, 5.07) and the reproductive number was 2.41 (95% CI: 2.33, 2.48). During quarantine (March 20 to April 9), doubling time was 12.97 days (95% CI: 12.57, 13.39) and the reproductive number was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.78, 1.02).

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.15.20154336: (What is this?)

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    Table 1: Rigor

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    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    [17] Re was estimated using the Wallinga and Teunis method during the period after community quarantine was mandated.[18] Analyses and visualizations were done using Stata 16.1 (College Station, TX: StataCorp LP)
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    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    This overview of the first three months of the COVID-19 outbreak in the Philippines provides a unique perspective on the transmission of COVID-19 in a health system with limitations in surveillance, testing, and service delivery. Such information may aid modelling or data analyses efforts for outbreak response in the Philippines and countries with similar health system constraints as studies of the pandemic outside of high-income countries and in LMICs have been limited. Our results support findings that COVID-19 disproportionately burdens older age groups, healthcare workers, and densely populated urban areas.[25–27] Outbreak epicentres in the Philippines were urban centres, such as NCR and Cebu City, where NCR alone accounted for more than two-thirds of all cases. NCR is the fifth most densely populated metropolis in the world.[28] The first few cases were likely imported into these urban centres, as approximately one-tenth of the population are migrant workers and 8 million tourists visit annually.[29] The high proportion of healthcare workers as a share of cases may indicate poor compliance to infection control protocols and inadequate availability of personal protective equipment. In the Philippines, one in four confirmed cases were healthcare workers, much higher than the Western Pacific regional average of 2-3%.[30] Further investigation is necessary to identify exposure sources, gaps in infection control, and facilitators of hospital outbreaks. In the Philippines, sur...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

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    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
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    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.07.15.20154336v1 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1017/s0950268820002137