Risk Adjusted Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for the Management of COVID-19 in South Africa

  1. Joshua Choma
  2. Fabio Correa
  3. Salah-Eddine Dahbi
  4. Kentaro Hayasi
  5. Benjamin Lieberman
  6. Caroline Maslo
  7. Bruce Mellado
  8. Kgomotso Monnakgotla
  9. Jacques Naudé
  10. Xifeng Ruan
  11. Finn Stevenson

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Abstract

A global analysis of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the dynamics of the spread of the COVID-19 indicates that these can be classified using the stringency index proposed by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) team. The world average for the coefficient that linearises the level of transmission with respect to the OxCGRT stringency index is α s = 0.01 ± 0.0017 (95% C.I.). The corresponding South African coefficient is α s = 0.0078 ± 0.00036 (95% C.I.), compatible with the world average. Here, we implement the stringency index for the recently announced 5-tier regulatory alert system. Predictions are made for the spread of the virus for each alert level. Assuming constant rates of recovery and mortality, it is essential to increase α s . For the system to remain sub-critical, the rate with which α s increases should outpace that of the decrease of the stringency index. Monitoring of α s becomes essential to controlling the post-lockdown phase. Data from the Gauteng province obtained in May 2020 has been used to re-calibrate the model, where α s was found increase by 20% with respect to the period before lockdown. Predictions for the province are made in this light.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.15.20149559: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.07.15.20149559v1 on medRxiv