Dynamics and future of SARS-CoV-2 in the human host
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Abstract
Forecasting trends in COVID-19 infections is vital for the global economy, national governments and physical and mental well-being. Using the per capita number of new cases as a proxy for the abundance of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and the number of deaths as a measure of virulence, the dynamics of the pandemic and the outcomes emerging from it are examined for three locations (England, Italy and New York State). The data are analysed with a new version of a population dynamics model that combines exponential/logistic growth with time-varying carrying capacity, allowing predictions of persistence or extinction of the virus. In agreement with coevolutionary theory, the model suggests a transition from exponential virus growth to low abundance, coupled with reduced virulence, during colonisation of the alternate human host. The structure of the model allows a straightforward assessment of key parameters, which can be contrasted with standard epidemiological models and interpreted with respect to ecological and evolutionary processes and isolation policies.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.14.20153270: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank…
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.14.20153270: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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