PROJECTING A MATURE EPIDEMIC: A SIMPLE TOOL WITH AN APPLICATION TO COVID-19 DEATHS

  1. Marc Artzrouni
  2. Randy Wykoff

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Abstract

We describe a new statistical model for the spread of a mature epidemic, i.e. one characterized by an exponentially decaying growth rate of the cumulative number of cases/deaths – the speed of this decay being measured by the growth rate’s half-life. If such a pattern is observed during the recent past, then it can be extrapolated. A spreadsheet is made available that allows users to input weekly cumulative numbers of deaths and obtain an estimate of the growth rate’s baseline half-life and the corresponding projections. These projections can be compared to those with a larger half-life (if a protracted epidemic is expected, e.g. due to second wave), or with a smaller one (if successful therapies or mitigation efforts reduce transmission). The model is applied to deaths due to COVID-19 in California in May-June 2020.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.13.20152512: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

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    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.07.13.20152512v1 on medRxiv