Effectiveness of COCOA, a COVID-19 contact notification application, in Japan
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Abstract
Background
COCOA, a contact reporting application in Japan, was launched at the end of June 2020.
Object
We assessed effectiveness of COCOA.
Method
After developing a simple susceptible–infected–recovery model with COCOA and voluntary restrictions against going out (VRG), we assumed that COCOA can reduce infectiousness by 10–50% points through self-quarantine at home after receiving notification from COCOA.
Results
COCOA alone is insufficient to halt an outbreak. Even if the entire population were to use COCOA, the reproduction number would be 1.31. However, if VRG were 15%, about half of the maximum VRG effectiveness under the emergency state declaration, then 10% COCOA use by a population can reduce the reproduction number to less than one.
Conclusion
Significant effects of COCOA for reducing the reproduction number were found. However, without VRG, COCOA alone is insufficient to control an outbreak.
Article activity feed
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.11.20151597: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The present study has some limitations. First, we assumed no infectiousness before onset of symptoms. However, some studies have indicated the possibility of asymptomatic transmission. One study found 45% infectiousness during the pre-symptomatic period [6]. If incorporated into the model, then the period of infectiousness before testing …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.11.20151597: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The present study has some limitations. First, we assumed no infectiousness before onset of symptoms. However, some studies have indicated the possibility of asymptomatic transmission. One study found 45% infectiousness during the pre-symptomatic period [6]. If incorporated into the model, then the period of infectiousness before testing is expected to be longer. Given that different assumption, the COCOA effect might be even less.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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