“An exploratory Integrated Moving Average Time Series Model of the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in six (6) significantly impacted Countries”
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Abstract
The 2019 Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is a single-stranded RNA virus that has threatened the lives of humans all over the globe. Government officials, policy makers and public health officials have been scrambling and struggling to “flatten the curve” to decelerate the prevalence and spread of COVID-19 given the significant economic destruction of the spread of the virus. Most “flatten the curve” models are based on Compartmental Models. This preliminary research is based on six (6) selected countries significantly impacted by COVID-19 and endeavors to build a new model based on moving averages lagged at different time periods to better hone in on the time the COVID-19 begins to decelerate using the date of first reported case and date of first reported death. This new model, the Consistent Deceleration Model (CDM) is based on each individual country’s date of Peak Increase in Mortality Rate (PINC MR) and the Moving Average since the peak increase in mortality rate (MA POSTINC). The CDM can be utilized of one of many quantitative tools to determine the strength of the deceleration of an infectious outbreak.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.09.20150136: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank…
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.09.20150136: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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