A flexible COVID-19 model to assess mitigation, “reopening”, virus mutation and other changes

  1. Sergio Bienstock

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Abstract

The COVID-19 epidemic which began in China last year has expanded worldwide. A flexible SEIRD epidemiological model with time-dependent parameters is applied to modeling the pandemic. The value of the effective reproduction ratio is varied to quantify the impact of quarantines and social distancing on the number of infections and deaths, on their daily changes. and on the maxima in these daily rates expected during the epidemic. The effect of changing R eff is substantial. It ought to inform policy decisions around resource allocation, mitigation strategies and their duration, and economic tradeoffs. The model can also calculate the impact of changes in infectiousness or morbidity as the virus mutates, or the expected effects of a new therapy or vaccine assumed to arrive at a future date. The paper concludes with a discussion of a potential endemic end of COVID-19, which might involve times of about 100 years.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.09.20150029: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.07.09.20150029 on medRxiv