COVID-19 incidence trends between April and June 2020: A global analysis
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Abstract
The study sought to investigate how the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 have evolved in the most recent three months across the world, and what insights the trends may provide about the second half of the pandemic’s first year using a situation analysis approach based on national income, temperature, trade intensity with China, and location defined by longitude and latitude. The study confirmed the negative relationship between COVID-19 cases and temperature. It contributed to the resolution of the conflicting results about latitude after organizing it into a categorical variable instead of its continuous form. This approach works because the average temperature in the 15°S to 15°N region remains similar to the average temperatures in both the Above 15°N region and the Below 15°S region during their summer months because the 15°S to 15°N region does not experience the marked seasonal changes in temperature. Given the negative association between temperature and case numbers, this suggests that countries in the 15°S to 15°N region might continue exhibiting the low numbers they have thus far exhibited through the second half of this year, even as numbers climb in the Below 15°S region. To succeed, their policymakers must control importation of the disease by implementing effective testing, quarantining, and contact tracing for people entering their borders. Policymakers in countries Below 15°S region may manage their inherent risks by applying lessons learned from countries in the Above 15°N region during these past months. Such preventative measures may allow the world to avoid the drastic lockdown policies and facilitate rapid global economic recovery from this pandemic.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.07.20148007: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources The latitude and longitude of jurisdictions’ capital cities were downloaded from Dataset Publishing Language (https://developers.google.com/public-data/docs/canonical/countries_csv), and supplemented with data from GeoHack, a client hosted by Wikipedia’s Toolforge (https://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/), which provides links to various mapping services on Wikipedia. Wikipediasuggested: (Wikipedia, RRID:SCR_004897)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from Limita…SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.07.20148007: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources The latitude and longitude of jurisdictions’ capital cities were downloaded from Dataset Publishing Language (https://developers.google.com/public-data/docs/canonical/countries_csv), and supplemented with data from GeoHack, a client hosted by Wikipedia’s Toolforge (https://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/), which provides links to various mapping services on Wikipedia. Wikipediasuggested: (Wikipedia, RRID:SCR_004897)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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