Associations between state-level healthcare access and COVID-19 case trajectories in the United States

  1. Shelley H. Liu
  2. Bian Liu
  3. Agnes Norbury
  4. Yan Li

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Abstract

Introduction

We conducted an ecological study to determine if state-level healthcare access is associated with trajectories of daily reported COVID-19 cases in the United States. Our focus is on trajectories of daily reported COVID-19 cases, rather than cumulative cases, as trajectories help us identify trends in how the pandemic naturally develops over time, and study the shapes of the curve in different states.

Methods

We analyzed data on daily reported confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases from January 21 to June 16, 2020 in 50 states, adjusted for the population size of each state. Cluster analysis for time-series data was used to split the states into clusters that have distinct trajectories of daily cases. Differences in socio-demographic characteristics and healthcare access between clusters were tested. Adjusted models were used to determine if healthcare access is associated with reporting a high trajectory of COVID-19 cases.

Results

Two clusters of states were identified. One cluster had a high trajectory of population- adjusted COVID-19 cases, and comprised of 19 states, including New York and New Jersey. The other cluster of states (n=31) had a low trajectory of population-adjusted COVID-19 cases.

There were significantly more Black residents (p=0.027) and more nursing facility residents (p=0.001) in states reporting high trajectory of COVID-19 cases. States reporting a high trajectory of COVID-19 cases also had fewer uninsured persons (p=0.005), fewer persons who reported having to forgo medical care due to cost (p=0.016), more registered physicians (p=0.002) and more nurses (p=0.03), higher health spending per capita (p=0.01), fewer residents in Health Professional Shortage Areas per 100,000 population (p=0.027), and higher adoption of Medicaid Expansion (p=0.05).

In adjusted models, a higher proportion of uninsured persons (OR: 0.51 [0.25-0.85]; p=0.032), higher proportion of patients who had to forgo medical care due to cost (OR: 0.55 [0.28-0.95]; p=0.048), and no adoption of Medicaid expansion (OR: 0.05 [0 – 0.59]; p=0.04), were associated with reporting a low trajectory of COVID-19 cases.

Conclusion

Our findings from adjusted models suggest that healthcare access can partially explain variations in COVID-19 case trajectories by state.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.04.20146100: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.07.04.20146100v1 on medRxiv