Modeling the COVID-19 dissemination in the South Region of Brazil and testing gradual mitigation strategies

  1. Rafael M. da Silva

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Abstract

This study aims to understand the features of the COVID-19 spread in the South Region of Brazil by estimating the Effective Reproduction Number (ERN) ℛ e for the states of Paraná (PR), Rio Grande do Sul (RS), and Santa Catarina (SC). We used the SIRD (Susceptibles-Infectious-Recovered-Dead) model to describe the past data and to simulate strategies for the gradual mitigation of the epidemic curve by applying non-pharmacological measures. Besides the SIRD model does not include some aspects of COVID-19, as the symptomatic and asymptomatic subgroups of individuals and the incubation period, for example, in this work we intend to use a classical and easy to handle model to introduce a thorough method of adjustment that allows us to achieve reliable fitting for the real data and to obtain insights about the current trends for the pandemic in each locality. Our results demonstrate that for localities for which the ERN is about 2, only rigid measures are efficient to avoid overwhelming the health care system. These findings corroborate the relevance of keeping the value of ℛ e below 1 and applying containment measures early.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.02.20145136: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.07.02.20145136v1 on medRxiv