Prediction of COVID-19 Active and Total Cases After a Fall and Rise of Cases

  1. Narayanan C. Viswanath

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Abstract

During the progress of the COVID-19, many countries have observed that their active cases tend to rise again after falling for some time. This may cause some mathematical models like the one discussed in [2] tend to make errors in the future prediction. We discuss a simple method to better the future prediction in such cases. This method is applied on the active and total cases data for the countries USA and Canada. In the case of Canada, the method succeeded in predicting the date when the active cases began to decrease. In the case of USA, a major improvement in prediction was observed when the method was applied: the predicted active and total cases are 1465602 and 2729015 for June 30; whereas the actual values are 1455400 and 2728856. We also give the active and total cases prediction for Canada and the USA for the first week of July 2020.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.02.20145045: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.07.02.20145045v1 on medRxiv