Impact of the first COVID-19 shelter-in-place order in the United States on emergency department utilization, Marin County, California

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Abstract

Background

The first shelter-in-place (SIP) order in the United States was issued across six counties in the San Francisco Bay Area to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on critical care resources. We sought to assess the impact of this large-scale intervention on emergency departments (ED) in Marin County, California.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective descriptive and trend analysis of all ED visits in Marin County, California from January 1, 2018 to May 4, 2020 to quantify the temporal dynamics of ED utilization before and after the March 17, 2020 SIP order.

Results

The average number of ED visits per day decreased by 52.3% following the SIP order compared to corresponding time periods in 2018 and 2019. Both respiratory and non-respiratory visits declined, but this negative trend was most pronounced for non-respiratory admissions.

Conclusions

The first SIP order to be issued in the United States in response to COVID-19 was associated with a significant reduction in ED utilization in Marin County.

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  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.01.20144691: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.


    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).


    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    However, the limitations include the inability to verify symptoms based on clinical chart review, due to limited data available from ED records. Because the data came from three different EDs, the coding of chief complaints may have varied. Diverging trends in healthcare utilization have emerged during the early COVID-19 pandemic period. Our results suggest that SIP orders and other circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with reduced ED utilization. This reduction may be due to public fear or other unintended consequences of reduced human mobility (e.g. fewer traffic accidents), and reduced transmission of other communicable diseases due to reduced physical contact. Future directions include a time series analysis to better understand the statistical impacts of SIP orders in Marin, further stratification of syndromes to separate causes of non-respiratory visits, and investigation of linking ED visit data with other data sources such as emergency medical services database, death records, and the human mobility index. In conclusion, COVID-19 mitigation efforts including large-scale SIP orders can significantly impact healthcare systems. Specifically, ED utilization appears to be closely associated with these orders and appear very responsive to temporal trends in disease dynamics. This information may be used to support clinical-decision making and guide strategic public health messages if future non-pharmacological interventions are required.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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