Superspreading as a Regular Factor of the COVID-19 Pandemic: I. A Two-Component Model

  1. Juri Dimaschko

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Abstract

We consider the impact of superspreading on the course of the COVID-19 epidemic. A two-component model of the epidemic has been developed, in which all infected are divided in two groups. The groups are asymptomatic superspreaders spreading the infection and sensitive persons which can only get infection. Once infected the sensitive exhibit clear symptoms and become isolated. It is shown that the ratio of increment of the number of daily cases in the beginning of the epidemic and decrement at the end of the epidemic is equal to the ratio of the spreading rates of the infection transmission from the superspreaders to potential superspreaders and to the sensitive persons, respectively. On the basis of data from 12 countries and territories it is found that the superspreaders transmit the infection to potential superspreaders approximately 4 times more often then to the sensitive persons. Specific measures to limit the epidemical incidence are proposed. The possibility of an allergic component in the disease is discussed.

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  1. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.29.20138008v5 on medRxiv
  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.29.20138008v4 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.29.20138008v3 on medRxiv
  4. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.29.20138008v2 on medRxiv
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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.29.20138008: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  6. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.29.20138008v1 on medRxiv