The Influence of Time-Limited Immunity on a COVID-19 Epidemic: A Simulation Study

  1. Robert J. Kosinski

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Abstract

A series of spreadsheet simulations using SEIS, SEIR, and SEIRS models showed that different durations of effective immunity could have important consequences for the prevalence of an epidemic disease with COVID-19 characteristics. Immunity that lasted four weeks, twelve weeks, six months, one year, and two years was tested with pathogen R 0 values of 1.5, 2.3, and 3.0. Shorter durations of immunity resulted in oscillations in disease prevalence. Immunity that lasted from three months to two years produced recurrent disease outbreaks triggered by the expiration of immunity. If immunity “faded out” gradually instead of persisting at full effectiveness to the end of the immune period, the recurrent outbreaks became more frequent. The duration of effective immunity is an important consideration in the epidemiology of a disease like COVID-19.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.28.20142141: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a protocol registration statement.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.28.20142141v1 on medRxiv