Strategies for Controlling the Spread of COVID-19

  1. Eric Forgoston
  2. Michael A.S. Thorne

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Abstract

We consider a deterministic epidemiological compartmental model that includes age and social contact structure for the COVID-19 crisis and explore the consequences of different strategies for easing current lockdown measures that are in place in many countries. We apply the model to the specific circumstances in the state of New Jersey, in the United States of America. As expected, only a rigorous program of testing, tracing and isolation of cases will allow the state to ease its lockdown with a reduced number of deaths. We also find that a slightly earlier date of lockdown, while reducing the number of deaths in the short term, will only reduce the total number of deaths in the long run if the ensuing strategies in easing the lockdown are carried out with the aforementioned test, trace and isolation program. Otherwise, a slightly earlier lockdown will result in increased deaths as the expected second wave of infection sweeps through the state in the coming months.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.24.20139014: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.24.20139014v1 on medRxiv