Extension and implementation of a system modelling the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile

  1. Gastón Vergara-Hermosilla
  2. Andrés Navas

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Abstract

We modelling the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic taking into account the role of the unreported cases. In a first section we extend the model recently introduced/ implemented by Liu, Magal, Seydi and Webb, by considering different transmission rates for the infectious and unreported states, and we couple three new states related to hospitalized and fatalities. In addition, we introduce an operator that incorporates the effects of mitigation measures at the different rates considered in the system. Finally, we implemented the extended model in the Chilean context by considering variable the transmission rates and the fraction of unreported cases, the latter through an argument that uses mortality rates. We conclude with several conclusions and lines of future research.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.21.20136606: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.21.20136606 on medRxiv