Estimation of fatality rate in Africa through the behavior of COVID-19 in Italy relevance to age profiles

  1. Lambert Nzungize
  2. Diane Umuhoza
  3. Yongdong Dai
  4. Stech A E. Nzaou
  5. Mohammed Asaad
  6. M. A. Abokadoum
  7. Ulrich Aymard Ekomi Moure
  8. Jianping Xie

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Abstract

The emergence and pandemic of COVID-19 has rapidly become a global concern. In Italy, on 27 March 2020, there were 8165 deaths and 80539 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Demographic situations, like age profiles is reported to be the cause of high case fatality rate (CFR) in Italy. In Africa, the COVID-19 pandemic has not yet grasped epic proportion, but the estimation of CFR is still needed. We compared the CFR observed in Italy with the age profiles in 46 Africa countries and 2 territories which are already confirmed COVID-19 case. The estimation of the CFR in Africa ranges between (1.0%-5.4%) while in Italy is 10.1%. The five highest CFR countries and territories in Africa are Reunion (5.4%), Mauritius (5.1%), Tunisia (3.9%), Seychelles (3.8%) and Morocco (3.3%). The last three countries with low CFR are Uganda (1.0%), Zambia (1.1%) and Angola (1.1%). The observed difference is related to the age profiles.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.21.20129049: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.21.20129049v1 on medRxiv