Spring Weather and COVID-19 Deaths in the U.S.

  1. Seyed M. Karimi
  2. Mahdi Majbouri
  3. Kelsey White
  4. Bert Little
  5. W. Paul McKinney
  6. Natalie DuPre

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Abstract

This study used statistically robust regression models to control for a large set of confounders (including county-level time-invariant factors and time trends, regional-level daily variation, state-level social distancing measures, ultraviolet light, and levels of ozone and fine particulate matter, PM2.5) to estimate a reliable rather than simple regression for the impact of weather on the most accurately measured outcome of COVID-19, death. When the average minimum temperature within a five-day window increased by one degree Fahrenheit in spring 2020, daily death rates in northern U.S. counties increased by an estimated 5.1%. When ozone concentration over a five-day window rose by one part per billion, daily death rates in southern U.S. counties declined by approximately 2.0%. Maximum temperature, precipitation, PM2.5, and ultraviolet light did not significantly associate with COVID-19 mortality. The mechanism that may drive the observed association of minimum temperature on COVID-19 deaths in spring months may be increased mobility and contacts. The effect of ozone may be related to its disinfectant properties, but this requires further confirmation.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.20.20136259: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    The UV light index for the U.S. county centroids was obtained from the www.openweather.com, using the Python “pyowm” program,57 and joined to the data file.
    Python
    suggested: (IPython, RRID:SCR_001658)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Limitations: The present study has several important limitations. Measurement error in the assignment of air pollution information is much greater than the error in the assignment of temperature and precipitation information. Specifically, the median distance of stations reporting temperatures, precipitation, ozone, and PM2.5 to the county centroid was 6.9, 4.2, 17.3, and 21.8 miles, respectively. The sensitivity of this study’s results was tested against the exclusion of counties with air quality stations 40 miles or more and 20 miles or more away from the county centroid. The results sustained the test. The association of COVID-19 deaths and the five-day average minimum temperature was 5.5% when the most restricted sample was used. The association of COVID-19 deaths and the five-day average ozone level, however, increased from −2.0% to −3.8% (Table A1). Moreover, the results were preserved after distances from weather and air quality stations were added as covariates to the statistical models (Tables A6 and A7). Another issue of note is that state-level day fixed-effects were not included in the models. Including state-level day fixed-effects removes much of the daily variation in temperature because many U.S. States, particularly in the Northeast, are too small to have much within-state variation in temperature. In other words, the results would produce a statistically insignificant estimate due to the model, rather than the true coefficient (A recently published study use...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a protocol registration statement.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.20.20136259v1 on medRxiv