The Covid-19 epidemic in the UK

  1. Giulia Faggio
  2. Franco Peracchi

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Abstract

In this note we present some stylised facts about the Covid-19 epidemic in the UK using daily time-series data published by Public Health England and the UK Department of Health and Social Care. We model the data on confirmed new cases using standard count-data models estimated at the country and national levels using a fixed rolling window to capture changes in the model parameters over time. We then use the most recent estimated models to carry out a simple real-time forecasting exercise aimed at predicting the date when the number of confirmed new cases will be approximately zero.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.19.20135517: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.19.20135517v1 on medRxiv