Affected medical services in Iwate prefecture in the absence of a COVID-19 outbreak

  1. Noriyuki Sasaki
  2. Satoshi S. Nishizuka

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Abstract

The Japanese government has declared a national emergency and travel entry ban since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began. As of June 19, 2020, there have been no confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Iwate. Here, we analyzed the excess deaths as well as the number of patients and medical earnings due to the pandemic from prefectural hospitals located in one of the least-affected areas in Japan. From January to March 2020, the excess death rates per month were not significantly higher than the past-year average. Compared to January 2020, the numbers of both outpatients and inpatients in April 2020 showed a 5.2% and 6.1% decrease, respectively. Accordingly, the amount of medical earnings of both outpatients and inpatients in April 2020 showed a 3.0% and 6.3% decrease, respectively. Present analysis demonstrated that there were no excess deaths due to “unidentified” COVID-19 infections in Iwate; however, hospital budgetary management has been affected by the social restrictions. Regardless of COVID-19 infection spread, it may be difficult to maintain daily medical services if such low service activity continues in the existing hospitals. Additional longitudinal studies will be necessary to evaluate the effects of social restrictions on hospital management, but the true demand of regional medical services may emerge after this outbreak.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.19.20135269: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Limitations of this study include a limited follow-up period through April 30, 2020 and the lack of appropriate municipal governments in Japan for comparison. In addition, the excess deaths were counted monthly instead of weekly because of public data availability4. Thus, the present data may not be fully applicable to specific issues in individual hospitals. Additional longitudinal studies will be necessary to evaluate the effects of social restrictions on hospital management, but the true demand of regional medical services may emerge after this outbreak.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.19.20135269v1 on medRxiv