LOCKDOWN AS A PANDEMIC MITIGATING POLICY INTERVENTION IN INDIA

  1. Subhayan Mandal
  2. Manoj Kumar
  3. Debasish Sarkar

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Abstract

We use publicly available timeline data on the Covid-19 outbreak for nine indian states to calculate the important quantifier of the outbreak, the sought after R t or the time varying reproduction number of the outbreak. This quantity can be measured in in several ways, e.g. by application of Stochastic compartmentalised SIR (DCM) model, Poissonian likelihood based (ML) model & the exponential growth rate (EGR) model. The third one is known as the effective reproduction number of an outbreak. Here we use, mostly, the second one. It is known as the instantaneous reproduction number for an outbreak. This number can faithfully tell us the success of lockdown measures inside indian states, as containment policy for the spread of Covid-19 viral disease. This can also, indirectly yield notional value of the generation time inteval in different states. In doing this work we employ, pan India serial interval of the outbreak estimated directly from data from January 30 th to April 19 th , 2020. Simultaneously, in conjunction with the serial interval data, our result is derived from incidences data between March 14 th , 2020 to June 1 st , 2020, for the said states. We find the lockdown had marked positive effect on the nature of time dependent reproduction number in most of the Indian states, barring a couple. The possible reason for such failures have been investigated.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.19.20134437: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

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    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
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    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.19.20134437v1 on medRxiv