Mathematical Modeling of Coronavirus Reproduction Rate with Policy and Behavioral Effects

  1. Rabeya Anzum
  2. Md. Zahidul Islam

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Abstract

In this paper a modified mathematical model based on the SIR model used which can predict the spreading of the corona virus disease (COVID-19) and its effects on people in the days ahead. This model considers all the death, infected and recovered characteristics of this disease. To determine the extent of the risk posed by this novel coronavirus; the transmission rate ( R 0 ) is utilized for a time period from the beginning of spreading virus. Particularly it includes a novel policy to capture the Ro response in the virus spreading over time. The model estimates the vulnerability of the pandemic according to John H. Cochrane’s method with a prediction of new cases by estimating a time-varying R 0 to capture changes in the behavior of SIR model implies to new policy taken at different times and different locations of the world. This modified SIR model with the different values of R 0 can be applied to different country scenario using the real time data report provided by the authorities during this pandemic. The effective evaluation of R 0 can forecast the necessity of lockdown as well as reopening the economy.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.16.20133330: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

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    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
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    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.16.20133330v3 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.16.20133330v2 on medRxiv
  4. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.16.20133330v1 on medRxiv