Modeling the Post-Containment Elimination of Transmission of COVID-19

  1. Flávio Codeço Coelho
  2. Luiz Max Carvalho
  3. Raquel M Lana
  4. Oswaldo G Cruz
  5. Leonardo S Bastos
  6. Claudia T Codeço
  7. Marcelo F C Gomes
  8. Daniel Villela

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Abstract

Roughly six months into the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have managed to contain the spread of the virus by means of strict containment measures including quarantine, tracing and isolation of patients as well strong restrictions on population mobility. Here we propose an extended SEIR model to explore the dynamics of containment and then explore scenarios for the local extinction of the disease. We present both the deterministic and stochastic version fo the model and derive the ℛ 0 and the probability of local extinction after relaxation (elimination of transmission) of containment, ℙ 0 . We show that local extinctions are possible without further interventions, with reasonable probability, as long as the number of active cases is driven to single digits and strict control of case importation is maintained. The maintenance of defensive behaviors, such as using masks and avoiding agglomerations are also important factors. We also explore the importance of population immunity even when above the herd immunity threshold.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.15.20132050: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
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    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.15.20132050 on medRxiv