Modeling the Spring 2020 New York City COVID-19 Epidemic: New Criteria and Methods for Prediction

  1. D. A. Barlow
  2. J. K. Baird

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Abstract

We report here on results obtained using the SIR epidemic model to study the spring 2020 COVID-19 epidemic in New York City (NYC). An approximate solution is derived for this non-linear system which is then used to derive an expression for the time to maximum infection. Additionally, expressions are obtained for estimating the transmission and recovery parameters using data collected in the first ten days of the epidemic. Values for these parameters are then generated using data reported for the spring 2020 NYC COVID-19 epidemic which are then used to estimate the time to maximum infection and the maximum number of infected. Complete details are given so that the method can be used in the event of future epidemics. An additional result of this study is that we are able to suggest a unique mitigation strategy.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.12.20130005: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.12.20130005v1 on medRxiv